… and how it relates to Yahoo’s revenue projections. Freshmen need to generate 900 pageviews per month Yahoo expects to make their numbers.
Fred Stutzman says:
Social networks like the Facebook are situationally relevant. This means that at different points in a person’s life, the information needs answered by the site are different. For Facebook, the strongest information need met by the site is when the users are Freshmen in college, negotiating a new social world. As these users age – they find partners, narrow their friend groups, settle down – a site like Facebook becomes much less relevant. Does Yahoo really expect that 92% of users are going to be trying to continue to use Facebook like they are freshmen into their mid-twenties and thirties?
In reality, Facebook use decays over time. Indeed, the Facebook may think of new products that keep people coming back (and Yahoo’s assumption certainly takes this into account), but the core motivation that made people latch onto the Facebook only gets weaker over time. Once we find our friend groups, we need something like the Facebook less. Facebook is a somewhat unique product in that sense.
“Situational relevance and the patterns of decay based on the lifecycle of users.â€? Dating sites should take notice of this. A member during the first week or two does not have the same needs as a one year member. Most sites don’t treat the two any differently, which is a) leaving money on the table and b) not providing members with the help and guidance they need to find the right person for them. What is your site doing to work with members along the dating timeline?
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This is why I do not believe social networking sites will replace dating sites. Social networking sites keep people longer but their user base has less use for them over time. A dating site has high turnover in the short term, but people will return when they are single again. I tend to think that MySpace is a fad that will lose it’s popularity over time as it’s users grow up, and nigerian scammers take over. The influence that networking sites like MySpace and Friendster will have on dating sites is people will not be willing to pay $25+ to send an e-mail anymore. I think users get real pissed when they have to pay to see who sent them an e-mail. I canceled my American Singles account shortly after they started doing it.
I think social sites can have a long life as long as they are true to the community they are trying to serve, offer clear benefits and relate to a niche that has intrinsec staying power.
Nothing lasts long when it is offered to people that are just bypassers in a temporary state but if you do the same in a community of members of highly related interests -interests that have a longer shelf life-, then there is no question in my mind that such sites offer a better proposition than just *dating*.
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