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WeAttract has published a report titled “Consumers are having second thoughts about online dating.” The report examines seven opportunities and threats facing online dating sites. Link to report.
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4 responses so far ↓
1
Fernando Ardenghi (Check me out!)
// Mar 10, 2005 at 8:47 pm
It will take me more than a whole week to read the report.
It seems to be a great marketing brochure
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a great OnLine Dating Industry analysis
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a good amount of advice.
Kindest Regards,
Fernando Ardenghi
Buenos Aires.
Argentina
ardenghifer@argentina.com
2
Fernando Ardenghi (Check me out!)
// Mar 14, 2005 at 2:48 pm
I had been reading the report / whitepaper named CONSUMERS ARE HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS ABOUT ONLINE DATING; written by the company WeAttract and what most caught my attention was on page 22:
http://www.weattract.com
http://www.weattract.com/images/weAttract_whitepaper.pdf
/////…..it should not be too surprising that online dating may have unanticipated consequences. In fact, studies of major technologies and inventions (from cell phones to antibiotics to cars) have found a repeated pattern of:
Intensity of spread and excitement
Disaster or highly publicized damage is observed
Reform occurs in the industry
Vigilance by industry and consumers become necessary.
If online dating follows this trend, we can expect problems to arise that will bring the “intensity” period to an end. This is not an inevitable cycle. The question for the online dating industry is:
What level of “disaster” will it take to lead to reform and new guidelines in the industry? Will the “disaster” have to occur on your own site before you make changes?……/////
The authors self asked in the report: / whitepaper:
What level of “disaster” will it take to lead to reform and new guidelines in the industry?
I think the answer is very easy: conversion rate from users to clients goes to 0.00% !!!
OnLine Dating & Social Networking Industry is in a SECOND BIG BUBBLE, that will explode soon. Some problems appeared in many sites:
Many are NOT profitable now and will never be.
Many are full of fake profiles, invented profiles to attract users and then try to convert in clients. The database is full of rubbish, ads, persons that tell lies or not exist, persons that use retouched or fake photos, etc. (LOW RELIABILITY)
Many have low reliability & low precision in matching persons.
All these make the average conversion rate from users to clients to decrease fast.
The strategy to give free memberships to have a good amount of users and then try to convert them in clients will not work any more, because they will remain as users for ever and ever. (a vicious circle)
Many new sites will try to specialize in different topics (like pets, children, food, education, lifestyle, geographical, cars), to serve a niche market, but the objective is to build an online community not a GHETTO.
Online community is a group of persons that interact each other and a person who is paying a fee is a client –not a free user- and of course, sooner or later, will like to meet other compatible real persons. (high reliability). He or She is not loosing precious time, He or She is investing in a long term relationship with future in mind. I also think that the Industry will require a collaborative environment to develop innovations in “Personality Test Matching / Dating Method” (eg: a group of engineers, psychologists, marketing consultants working together) in next 5 years. The future will be in applying border studies (frontier studies, a combination of different knowledge from different sciences)
A new great niche market will appear:
- all the persons that have been hurt in their feelings by other persons in many actual on line dating sites. Many people COMPLAINT ABOUT AN IMPORTANT THING: SOONER OR LATER, they want to contact COMPATIBLE REAL PERSONS, so they will need reliability / high precision in on line dating.
- persons that are SEARCHING for a multicultural on line dating. (e.g. a German person living in Germany and compatible with a Brazilian person who speaks Portuguese and lives in Australia)
- persons that have time to wait. (as long as a whole year, or more).
And all of them have the same reason to pay a fee:
This fee will work as a barrier to avoid free users, who could hurt their feelings.
2005 - 2010 The Flight to Quality
All the discussion about background checks legislation in USA, shows that now, a more complex process started.
I named this process “the flight to Quality”. From now to the next 5 years the OnLine Dating & Social Networking Industry will need more than a simple “Code of Ethics”.
It will need an “internal procedures / quality / evaluation code”; i.e. how to manage clients, like a ISO 9001:2000 Quality Norms for this service Industry.(ISO 9001:2000 formerly known as ISO 9002) and external evaluators that will certify the companies complies with Quality norms,
like Bureau Veritas
http://www.bvqi.com
TÜV Reinhland
http://www.tuv.com/en/index.php
or others.
Perhaps by 2010, ALL serious Dating Sites MUST have been certified and proudly show its certification mark/seal online.
ON Line Dating future = = QUALITY like actual OFF Line Chains.
Kindest Regards,
Fernando Ardenghi.
Buenos Aires.
Argentina.
ardenghifer@argentina.com
3
Fernando Ardenghi (Check me out!)
// Mar 17, 2005 at 2:48 pm
MISTAKES ON WeAttract’s report / whitepaper AND other comments
http://www.weattract.com/images/weAttract_whitepaper.pdf
Please see endnote#8 on page 46
////
If the probability of any random match being a future spouse is 1 in 500, then the probability of the match not being a future spouse is 499/500.
For this exercise, we assumed that each of the dates were independent, although this would probably not be the case in reality.
The probability of finding your spouse after 2 matches would be (499/500) * 2 and after N such encounters would be (499/500) * N.
Since (499/500) * 346 is 0.50, then one runs a 50% chance having not found a spouse and 50% of finding a spouse after 346 matches.
Good statisticians would want us to remind you that the probability of any given date along the way being a future spouse doesn’t change, even if one seems overdue to have a good date (aka, the “gambler’s fallacy). This probability is meant to reflect what we can say about where you are likely to be a year from now, and the probability says that somewhere along the way you have a 50/50 chance of getting married.
////
If
the probability of any random match being a future spouse is 1 in 500 == 1/500
then the probability of the match not being a future spouse is 499/500.
After 2 independent matches;
The probability of finding your spouse after 2 matches will be (1/500) * 2 == 2/500
After N independent matches; (N
4
Fernando Ardenghi (Check me out!)
// Mar 17, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Please see the whole comment at
http://mb.internetdatingconference.com/viewtopic.php?t=161
Kindest Regards,
Fernando Ardenghi.
Buenos Aires.
Argentina.
ardenghifer@argentina.com